Bangladesh’s Pivot to China: A Historical Shift Raising India’s Concerns
In recent developments, Bangladesh has been strengthening its ties with China, a move that has significant implications for the geopolitical landscape of South Asia and raises concerns for neighboring India.
Historical Context of Bangladesh-China Relations
Historically, Bangladesh maintained a balanced foreign policy, fostering relationships with both India and China. However, in recent years, the dynamics have shifted notably. In 2016, Bangladesh joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), prioritizing multiple projects, including the construction of power plants, railway lines, roads, a river tunnel, modernization of ports, and development of information and communication technologies. Additionally, China has become a significant supplier of military hardware to Bangladesh, accounting for a substantial portion of its arms imports between 2015 and 2019.
Recent Developments in Bangladesh-China Relations
The relationship between Bangladesh and China has deepened further in recent times. In March 2025, during a visit to China, Bangladesh’s interim leader, Muhammad Yunus, engaged in discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping. President Xi expressed China’s willingness to consider lowering interest rates on Chinese loans to Bangladesh and reaffirmed commitments to encourage Chinese investment in Bangladesh. The two leaders also discussed enhanced cooperation in water resource management and initiated negotiations for a China-Bangladesh Free Trade Agreement.
Furthermore, China has been actively involved in Bangladesh’s infrastructure development, including the construction of a $1.2 billion submarine base inaugurated in 2024. This base, located near Cox’s Bazar, houses Chinese-made submarines and signifies a deepening of military cooperation between the two nations.
Implications for India
India views the growing Bangladesh-China relationship with concern, particularly regarding security and regional influence. The establishment of Chinese-built military infrastructure in Bangladesh, such as the submarine base, is perceived as a potential shift in the balance of power in the Bay of Bengal, a region of strategic importance to India.
Additionally, the increasing economic ties between Bangladesh and China may reduce India’s influence in Bangladesh. China’s involvement in key infrastructure projects and its role as a major trading partner could lead to a realignment of regional alliances, challenging India’s traditional sphere of influence.
Conclusion
Bangladesh’s evolving relationship with China marks a significant shift in South Asian geopolitics. While Bangladesh seeks to leverage its partnerships for economic development, the deepening ties with China have raised strategic concerns for India. As the situation develops, it remains crucial for all parties to navigate these changes carefully to maintain regional stability and balance.
Sources:
- https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bangladesh-says-xi-jinping-would-consider-lowering-interest-chinese-loans-2025-03-28/?utm_
- https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2024/09/08/india-challenged-by-china-in-its-sphere-of-influence_6725225_23.html?utm_
- https://thediplomat.com/2023/10/what-is-driving-china-bangladesh-bonhomie?utm_
- https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/india-on-alert-as-china-bangladesh-military-cooperation-raises-strategic-concerns-2537645-2024-05-11?utm_
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