Background
The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, signed in December 1987 by U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, was one of the most significant arms control agreements of the Cold War. It required both nations to eliminate all ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 km and 5,500 km, along with their launchers. This was the first arms control treaty to actually eliminate an entire category of nuclear weapons rather than simply limit their numbers. By 1991, more than 2,600 missiles had been dismantled under the treaty’s strict verification protocols, and the agreement stood as a symbol of reduced tensions between the superpowers.
For decades, the INF Treaty helped stabilize the European security environment by preventing the deployment of short- and intermediate-range nuclear weapons capable of striking the continent within minutes. However, as geopolitical tensions rose in the 21st century, both the United States and Russia accused each other of undermining the agreement.
The Treaty’s Collapse – Two-Phase Exit
Phase One – U.S. Withdrawal (2019)
In October 2018, the United States accused Russia of violating the treaty by deploying the Novator 9M729 (SSC-8) cruise missile, which Washington claimed exceeded the 500 km range limit. Russia denied the accusation, insisting that the missile’s range was compliant with the treaty. After months of failed talks, the U.S. suspended its participation in February 2019 and formally withdrew from the treaty on August 2, 2019. This marked the first major fracture in the arms control framework since the end of the Cold War.
Phase Two – Russia’s Final Break (August 2025)
For several years after the U.S. withdrawal, Russia declared it would observe a voluntary moratorium on deploying intermediate-range missiles in Europe and Asia, provided that NATO countries and the United States did the same. However, in early August 2025, Moscow announced that it no longer considered itself bound by these restrictions. The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that U.S. missile deployments in Europe and the Asia-Pacific, including the use of advanced missile systems during military exercises, had “fundamentally altered” the security environment, leaving no reason to maintain the moratorium.
Why Russia Made the Move Now
The decision to abandon the INF Treaty fully was driven by recent U.S. military actions, including the testing and positioning of intermediate-range missile systems in regions close to Russia. Notably, the deployment of the Typhon missile system in military drills in Australia’s Northern Territory, along with U.S. missile deployments in the Philippines, was perceived in Moscow as a direct threat to its security. Russian officials argue that these moves have erased any sense of strategic balance, compelling them to respond by freeing themselves from treaty constraints.
Implications – The Risk of a Renewed Nuclear Arms Race
With the INF Treaty gone, only one major arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia remains: the New START Treaty, which limits long-range nuclear weapons and strategic launchers. However, New START is set to expire in February 2026, and Russia has already suspended its participation in its verification measures. If no new agreement is reached, the world could soon be without any binding nuclear arms control framework between the two largest nuclear powers.
The breakdown of these treaties removes essential transparency measures and increases the likelihood of miscalculations. Experts warn that without such guardrails, both sides could accelerate the development and deployment of new intermediate-range and hypersonic missile systems, potentially reigniting a Cold War-style arms race. The effects would not be limited to the U.S. and Russia—Europe and the Asia-Pacific could once again become prime theaters for missile deployment, raising tensions across multiple regions.
Strategic and Global Reactions
The European Union and NATO have expressed concern over Russia’s decision, urging both sides to return to dialogue and avoid steps that could increase instability. Meanwhile, China, which was never part of the INF Treaty, has been rapidly expanding its own missile capabilities, complicating any potential future negotiations. Arms control advocates emphasize the urgent need for a new multilateral framework that includes not just the U.S. and Russia, but also emerging powers whose missile capabilities could shape future security dynamics.
Russia’s exit from the INF Treaty represents more than just the end of an agreement—it marks a decisive step away from decades of arms control progress and a return to an era of heightened nuclear competition. Unless new agreements are forged, the breakdown of these treaties may usher in a period of unprecedented missile proliferation, strategic mistrust, and instability across the globe.
Sources:
- https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/direct-threat-russia-walks-out-of-nuclear-treaty-with-us-cites-actions-of-western-countries/articleshow/123100966.cms?utm_
- https://apnews.com/article/9b273fb485cec0fc9dda3b9adda1c768?utm_
- https://m.economictimes.com/news/defence/back-to-cold-war-era-russia-ends-nuclear-treaty-as-trump-sends-nuke-submarines-into-position/articleshow/123108576.cms?utm_
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