In a thought-provoking editorial published in The Hindu on July 22, 2025, geopolitics expert Kadira Pethiyagoda raises an urgent concern: Is India’s aspiration to become a global great power being undermined by geopolitical events beyond its control specifically, the threat of a U.S.-Iran conflict? Mr. Pethiyagoda’s argument revolves around the idea that India’s rise depends heavily on maintaining strategic autonomy, balancing relationships with major powers, and resisting being pulled into binary blocs. However, the increasing aggression of U.S. policy towards Iran and the potential for a regime change or war poses a major threat to this balance.
What the Editorial Warns Us About
The author begins by highlighting the continuing threat of war between the U.S. and Iran, despite claims by former President Donald Trump that Iran’s nuclear programme had been “vanquished.” Pethiyagoda suggests that such a conflict would have devastating effects not just for West Asia, but for India’s geopolitical strategy. A core point made is that India’s foreign policy thrives in a multipolar world where no single superpower dominates and New Delhi can engage with different powers like the U.S., Russia, Iran, and China on its own terms. A U.S.-led regime change in Iran, however, would shift the regional balance drastically and erode this flexibility.
What Happens if Iran Falls?
It can be analysed from this editorial that;
- Energy Dependence: India imports a significant portion of its energy from West Asia. Without Iran, India would have to rely solely on U.S.-aligned suppliers, making it vulnerable to American political pressures.
- Loss of Strategic Autonomy: Iran plays a key role in Delhi’s ability to pursue independent diplomacy. If Tehran is removed from the equation, India could be pushed into aligning more rigidly with U.S. interests.
- Weakening of Multipolarity: The editorial stresses that a U.S. victory over Iran would reinforce American unipolarity, undermining India’s long-term vision of a multipolar global order.
The author also points to earlier instances, such as U.S. sanctions on India for its continued cooperation with Russia, to show how India is increasingly being viewed with suspicion for maintaining independent ties. The idea that India is being forced to choose sides between the West and others runs against the grain of India’s strategic ethos.
Why Iran Matters to India’s Global Role
According to Pethiyagoda, Iran is not merely a regional actor for India it is a strategic pillar in New Delhi’s quest for great power status. From access to energy and transport corridors (like the Chabahar Port), to balancing China’s growing influence, Iran gives India critical room to manoeuvre.
Losing Iran would mean losing one of the few remaining levers of non-Western engagement, leaving India more exposed to pressure from the U.S. and its allies. Pethiyagoda strongly hints that this would be a strategic setback, shrinking India’s geopolitical options and weakening its claim to global power status.
India Must Push Back Against Pressure
Another important point made in the editorial is that India must not cave in to Western pressure to isolate Iran. Instead, it should actively urge the U.S. to accept a multipolar world and tolerate independent actors like Iran.
This, according to the author, is not just about Iran. It’s about India’s right to shape its foreign policy independently. If Delhi succumbs to Western dictates on Iran, it sets a precedent for future conflictsn whether with Russia, China, or others.
Mr. Pethiyagoda notes that during the Russia-Ukraine crisis, India’s stance of neutrality was condemned in the West, with UK media calling India “an enemy, not a neutral.” This reflects the increasing difficulty of remaining non-aligned in a polarized world.
The Larger Message: Multipolarity is the Future
In his concluding remarks, the author makes it clear that a multipolar world is not just India’s interest it is its path to power. Multipolarity ensures space for countries like India to grow, operate, and lead without having to submit to a hegemon. Mr. Pethiyagoda believes India should continue to engage all major powers including Iran and Russia and not let Western discomfort dictate its choices. He emphasizes that India’s long-term rise depends on preserving strategic partnerships, not just with the West, but also with non-Western actors who give Delhi leverage in global politics.
Source: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/the-threat-to-indias-great-power-status/article69838822.ece
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