In a significant development for global demographics, India has officially touched a population of 1.46 billion in 2025, as revealed in the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report released today. This milestone confirms India’s position as the most populous country in the world surpassing China by a considerable margin. But behind this headline figure lies a deeper, more nuanced story that shapes India’s future.
A Population on the Rise – But Slowly
While India’s population continues to grow, the pace of that growth has slowed dramatically. The most telling indicator is the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime. It now stands at 1.9 , well below the replacement level of 2.1. This means Indian families, on average, are having fewer children than needed to sustain the population in the long run. This shift reflects a remarkable transformation over the last few decades. From a country battling rapid population expansion in the 1970s and 80s, India has entered the stage of demographic maturity, where the focus is no longer on controlling population but on managing it wisely.
What’s Causing This Decline?
A range of factors is contributing to this fall in fertility rates: Urbanization and rising education levels, especially among women, are leading to delayed marriages and fewer children. Career priorities, financial planning, and access to family planning methods have empowered couples to make informed reproductive choices. In metro cities and southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, fertility rates have dipped to as low as 1.6–1.7. Yet, experts are also flagging concerns. In some urban pockets, fertility levels are falling so sharply that they may soon resemble trends seen in ageing East Asian countries. Fertility clinics have also reported rising cases of couples in their 30s facing delayed conception issues, sometimes due to biological factors like **diminished ovarian reserve.
India’s Youth Power – A Demographic Dividend?
Despite the slowing birth rate, India remains a young country. About 68% of the population falls within the working-age group (15–64 years). This opens a potential window of opportunity a demographic dividend where the country has more workers than dependents. This young population, if given access to quality education, healthcare, and employment, can fuel economic growth for decades. However, that window is not open forever. Countries like South Korea and Japan enjoyed such a phase but saw it close quickly due to ageing populations and falling birth rate. Alongside the youth boom is a quieter trend the ageing of India. Seniors (65 years and above) currently make up about 7% of the population, but this number is expected to rise sharply over the next 30–40 years. With rising life expectancy and better healthcare, India will soon face challenges in elder care, pensions, and chronic disease management.
A Crisis of Reproductive Aspirations
Perhaps the most alarming finding of the UNFPA report is what it calls a “fertility aspirations crisis.” One in three Indian adults is either unable to achieve their desired number of children or ends up having more than intended. This indicates gaps in the availability of family planning services, social support, and reproductive health infrastructure. Unmet needs, especially among economically and socially disadvantaged groups, mean that many still lack real reproductive choice. Simultaneously, aspiring parents in urban India may struggle with fertility treatments they cannot afford.
Final Thoughts
India’s population story is no longer about numbers alone. It is about the quality of life, the right to choose, and the vision to prepare for the future. With the right policies and a people-centric approach, India can turn its demographic reality into a demographic advantage. The focus now must be on reproductive empowerment, not control. The goal is a future where every Indian, regardless of age, gender, or background, can thrive—and where growth is measured not just in billions, but in dignity, opportunity, and well-being.
Sources:
- https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/indias-population-to-reach-1-46-billion-this-year-un-report-8635609
- https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/indias-fertility-rate-falls-to-1-9/articleshow/121761934.cms
- https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/et-graphics-indias-fertility-rate-falls-to-1-9-now-below-the-replacement-rate-of-2-1/articleshow/121761934.cms
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZj3BuCJMIY
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